U.S. Delinquency Rate Ticked Up in November

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE), has released the following “First Look” at November 2023 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market.

• The national delinquency rate edged higher to 3.39% in November—down 10 basis points (BPS) from the same time last year—but remains 64 BPS below pre-pandemic levels.

Key Findings:

• While delinquencies remain low overall, the rate among FHA loans is now at a 9-year high (excluding the immediate aftermath of the pandemic) and will be worth watching closely in 2024.
• Early-stage delinquencies among VA loans hit their highest non-pandemic levels since 2009, as rising interest rates have begun to impact performance among recently originated loans.
• GSE mortgages have been more resilient, with early-stage delinquencies holding stronger and overall delinquency rates less than half the national average at 1.51%.
• Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) rose to 459K but remain down 123K (-21%) from November 2022.
• Foreclosure starts decreased by 12.2% in November to 29K, with active foreclosure inventory falling to 216K, some 23% and 24% below 2019 levels, respectively.
• Prepayment activity fell again under continued pressure from seasonal homebuying patterns, along with the residual effects of 30-year rates climbing above 7.75% the month prior.

Data as of November 30, 2023:

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 3.39%

• Month-over-month change: 3.95%
• Year-over-year change: -2.88%

Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.41%

• Month-over-month change: -0.40%
• Year-over-year change: -8.18%

Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 29,000

• Month-over-month change: -12.19%
• Year-over-year change: 6.70%

Monthly prepayment rate (SMM): 0.37%

• Month-over-month change: -14.13%
• Year-over-year change: -11.08%

Foreclosure sales: 6,500

• Month-over-month change: 0.70%
• Year-over-year change: 3.81%

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure: ​1,804,000

• Month-over-month change: 70,000
• Year-over-year change: -24,000

Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due but not in foreclosure: 459,000

• Month-over-month change: 12,000
• Year-over-year change: -123,000

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: ​216,000

• Month-over-month change: -1,000
• Year-over-year change: -16,000

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,020,000

• Month-over-month change: 69,000
• Year-over-year change: -39,000

Top Five States by Non-Current Percentage:

1. Mississippi: 8.11%
2. Louisiana: 7.75%
3. Alabama: 5.78%
4. Indiana: 5.24%
5. Arkansas: 5.18%

Bottom Five States by Non-Current Percentage:

1. California: 2.24%
2. Idaho: 2.16%
3. Washington: 2.07%
4. Montana: 2.06%
5. Colorado: 1.99%

Top Five States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage:

1. Mississippi: 2.12%
2. Louisiana: 1.87%
3. Alabama: 1.46%
4. Arkansas: 1.30%
5. Georgia: 1.21%

Top Five States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current Percentage:

1. Alaska: -14.58%
2. Vermont: -13.06%
3. Rhode Island: -11.55%
4. North Dakota: -11.19%
5. New Hampshire: -10.37%

Bottom Five States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current Percentage:

1. Idaho: 7.26%
2. Louisiana: 6.55%
3. South Dakota: 5.33%
4. Hawaii: 4.61%
5. Texas: 2.48%

ICE Mortgage Monitor will not publish a report in January. The next ICE Mortgage Monitor will be published on February 5, 2024.

To read the full report, including more data, charts, and methodology, click here.